The Liberals and NDP anxiously awaited the results of two highly contested by-elections in Montreal and Winnipeg late Monday night. The outcomes could have significant implications for both parties as they fight to retain their long-time strongholds.
In Winnipeg’s Elmwood-Transcona, the NDP held a narrow lead over the Conservatives at 10:45 p.m. ET, with 42% of the polls reporting. The mood was cautiously optimistic at the NDP’s watch party, with around 50 supporters gathered at a local Winnipeg restaurant. NDP candidate Leila Dance had 48% of the vote, while Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds trailed with 44%. The Liberals were not seen as a major factor in this race.
Meanwhile, in Montreal’s LaSalle-Émard-Verdun riding, a tight three-way race was anticipated between the incumbent Liberals, the NDP, and the Bloc Québécois. By 10:45 p.m. ET, results were slowly trickling in, with just 2% of the polls reporting. The NDP’s Craig Sauvé led with 33% of the vote, followed closely by the Bloc’s Louis-Philippe Sauvé at 30%, and Liberal candidate Laura Palestini at 22%. The Conservatives were not expected to play a significant role in this contest.
In a surprising move, Laura Palestini addressed her supporters early in the evening, thanking volunteers and indicating that a final result might not be known until early Tuesday morning.
Both by-elections were viewed as crucial by the NDP and the Liberals. However, even before the outcomes were finalized, both parties insisted that potential losses would not affect their leaders’ positions. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated he wasn’t planning on going anywhere, regardless of the outcome, while NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh reaffirmed his commitment to leading the party.
Political strategist Zain Velji highlighted the importance of these elections for the NDP, especially after Singh positioned the party as the true progressive alternative to the Conservatives. Singh also tore up the confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals in the House of Commons, seeking policy concessions. “If these moves don’t include a win, they will raise more questions,” Velji noted.
On the Liberal side, political commentator Scott Reid remarked that a loss in the Montreal riding would sting, given its historical significance for the party. LaSalle-Émard-Verdun had been held by former Prime Minister Paul Martin for two decades, and losing it would evoke memories of the party’s 2011 general election defeat, when it fell to third place.
The Montreal by-election was prompted by the resignation of David Lametti, who stepped down less than a year after being removed from Trudeau’s cabinet. While the Liberals have dominated the riding for most of the past four decades, the NDP seized it during their “Orange Wave” in 2011. Now, both the NDP and the Bloc Québécois were seen as serious contenders.
Elmwood-Transcona in Winnipeg had been a stronghold for the Blaikie family since the 1980s, with Bill Blaikie and his son Daniel holding the seat for most elections, except in 2011 when the Conservatives briefly claimed it. Daniel Blaikie’s resignation led to this by-election, with the race expected to be tight. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre targeted NDP voters, attempting to tie Singh to Trudeau with campaign signs depicting the two leaders together and the slogan: “Sellout Singh.”
Jagmeet Singh, speaking in Ottawa, framed the by-elections as a choice for voters: Liberals who had “neglected their responsibilities,” Conservatives who “favored big corporations,” and the NDP, which focused on “saving money for families.
