Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight rivals Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko will clash once again this weekend (Saturday, Sept. 14, 2024) at UFC 306, taking place at The Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The Flyweight title scene is currently in flux, primarily due to the third fight between these two champions. Their bouts have been unconventional: although “Bullet” Shevchenko has won more rounds, she has also been hit with significant strikes and found herself in precarious positions. This may reflect the challenges of aging for the long-time fighter, while Grasso appears to be in her prime, showcasing peak performance.
Regardless of the outcome, this must be the final immediate rematch between these two fighters. The Flyweight division is now brimming with contenders. Manon Fiorot has secured a title shot, while Rose Namajunas, Maycee Barber, and Natalia Silva are making strong cases for a chance at the title.
This bout is therefore crucial for both fighters. Here’s a detailed look at the betting odds and strategic considerations for each athlete:
How Grasso Wins
Grasso, known for her powerful boxing, has developed impressive grappling and wrestling skills, making her a well-rounded champion capable of finishing fights both on the ground and on her feet. After almost 45 minutes of shared combat, Grasso has demonstrated a knack for capitalizing on Shevchenko’s mistakes and high-risk techniques, such as the spinning back kick and headlock throw. Despite losing some rounds, Grasso has landed the more significant strikes and created moments of danger for Shevchenko.
To continue this success, Grasso should maintain pressure without being reckless. She excels in extended exchanges where her power is evident. By being methodical and persistent, and not allowing Shevchenko to control the pace, Grasso can land more effectively and potentially hurt the former champion.
How Shevchenko Wins
Shevchenko is arguably the best counter-fighter in women’s MMA history. Her exceptional range control limits her opponents’ options and forces them into her game. However, she must avoid mistakes and make sound decisions. Specifically, she should discard the headlock toss, a technique that has proven ineffective and costly for her. In contrast, the spinning back kick remains a valuable tool if used judiciously.
The jab has been a crucial weapon for Shevchenko. She should focus on using it more frequently and complementing it with powerful kicks to the thigh, body, and head. By maintaining range and utilizing her jab effectively, she can build on her success and manage Grasso’s advances.
Grasso vs. Shevchenko Prediction
Overall, Shevchenko is the more experienced fighter, but Grasso’s youth and confidence make her a formidable opponent. Historical trends suggest that older fighters often struggle in rematches, and with each passing month, Grasso’s advantage grows. Shevchenko, despite her extensive experience, might find it challenging to make significant adjustments at this stage in her career.
If Shevchenko wins, it would be a testament to her professionalism and resilience. However, it’s more likely that Grasso, benefiting from her prime form and recent improvements, will secure the win. Shevchenko may win a few rounds, but Grasso is expected to endure and ultimately retain her title.
